Sam's rice price and market blog
Keeping rice prices affordable for everyone – including the poorest rice consumers – is an underlying aim for IRRI.
In this blog, our economic and policy experts will share their expertise and views on issues related to rice prices, the supply and demand of rice, and rice market and policy issues. Key contributors include economist Samarendu Mohanty, who heads IRRI's Social Sciences Division and regularly contributes articles on the rice market to Rice Today: Rice Facts.
See some of the latest slides on rice supply and demand.
Despite the current stability in the rice market, there are reasons for concern about the direction of the market in the medium term (mid- to late 2016).
Underlying market sentiments are rapidly changing, and the global rice market faces the possibility of a production shortfall in many rice-growing nations because of El Niño events.
Global rice prices continue their downward spiral in the face of excess supply from the major exporting countries.
China saved last year's market importing 2.3 million tons of rice. This year they may become the top rice importer with 3 million tons.
Current weather patterns in some Asian countries reinforce the recent announcement by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology that a strong El Niño event is already taking place.
The rice market has been quite lackluster in the past few months except for the steady downward slide of Thai rice prices because of uncertainty in the continuation of the pledging scheme.
In the past 18 months, global rice prices have been moving in a tight range. For example, the Oryza white rice index (WRI) has fluctuated between US$475 and $500 since January 2012.
The rice market faces political and weather uncertainties
The recent weather events in India and the Philippines are unlikely to have a significant impact on the global rice market.
Dr. Sam Mohanty examines the increasing role of China and India in the global rice trade.